Predictions on predictions

It’s that time of year. January brings a slew of predictions, with so-called experts rushing to call the trend that will define the year. 

The problem is that so much of this conjecture is contradictory.

It is, apparently, the year of dumbphones, with Zoomers ditching connectivity for basic functionality. On the flip side, so to speak, everything performative is out. Those two forecasts don’t quite fit together.

Another Nostradamus claims that posting a significant other on social media is on the outs. But how does that tally with the seemingly prevailing narrative that trying is once again cool, with even Zoomers embracing millennial sincerity?

Is being hot now a job requirement, as Business Insider claims, or should you simplify your routine and embrace your beauty marks, as Vogue advises?

There are a few possibilities here. It could be that the world contains so many sub-cultures that any prediction will resonate with someone. It could be that forecasters tend to project that they’d like to happen, rather than what will. Or it could simply be that no one really has any idea what they’re talking about. 

Perhaps the best way to determine the validity of predictions is to consider the motivation. When someone declares the nap is about to make a comeback, they are probably attempting to tap into the audience’s general sense of exhaustion, rather than confidently state we’ll all be enjoying a siesta while the spectre of AI threatens jobs. 

Given the volatility of basically everything, forecasting anything is either brave or foolish. Better to just cynically critique from the sidelines, we guess.