Communicating in chaos

Are we all feeling nice and liberated?

Trump’s Liberation Day seems to have only succeeded in unshackling chaos, with tariffs that may as well have been calculated by the penguins on McDonald Island hitting economies around the world.

The consensus of many economists and commentators appears to be that while the tariffs are self-defeating and damaging, it is the uncertainty of their ideation, application, and possible adaptation that is the real threat.  

While neither people nor markets are entirely rational, both rely heavily on pattern recognition. The future may be impossible to predict, but we can identify probable outcomes based on what we’ve seen before and know to be true.

Trump upends that foundational principle. Tariffs on everyone but China are now paused, but there’s no reason to think a phone call couldn’t still lead to a country having tariffs removed, or doubled, or multiplied by a number pulled from a raffle drum.

When what comes next is untethered from what we’ve seen before, caution and indecision take hold. And for communicators looking to drive action, that can spell disaster. 

The last time brands faced a similar environment of uncertainty (Covid, obviously), everyone coalesced around the ‘we’re with you through tough times’ motif. This time, it isn’t so easy - the problem isn’t an indiscriminate virus, but a divisive, powerful, and vindictive individual.

Brands will probably avoid a political stance, but will inevitably respond to broader cultural vibes. We’ll likely see examples of empathy (‘we really understand things are uncertain’), transparency (‘we don’t know what tomorrow will bring, but we’ll get there together’) and security (‘assurance in unstable times’). 

But the key may lie in reminding people of the patterns they can still recognise, creating crutches of certainty upon which to take action. Think family, community, comedy, and a dash of nostalgia. 

Or we could just find an uninhabited island they haven’t thought of and trade from there.

This is an extract from Allegory’s weekly newsletter, The Cave. Sign up here.